{"F": {"ts_code": "002931.SZ", "name": "锋龙股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180403", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 43.68, "pe_ttm": 1780.8645, "pb": 9.3482, "dv_ttm": 0.1145, "total_mv": 954433.7712, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.1, 28.2, 23.0, 18.7, 19.7, 23.2], "rev_series": [5.5, 7.2, 5.9, 4.3, 4.8, 5.0], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.5, -0.1, 0.0, 0.2], "roe_series": [13.6, 12.5, 7.1, -1.0, 0.6, 2.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 23.0, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -10.1, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 2.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.1, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.7, "pb_calc": 9.35, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 12.4, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 400.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.3, "np_cagr3": -22.4, "rev_yoy": 6.5, "np_yoy": -113.2, "np_vol": 181.0, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机械类产品", 32.0], ["机械类", 32.0], ["电控类产品", 18.0], ["电子电控类产品", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.9, "ret_prev2_year": 6.8, "ret_ytd": 38.0, "ret_pivot": 448.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.3, "ret_60": -32.6, "ret_120": -46.4, "ret_250": 151.2, "mdd_250": -64.9, "vol_250": 78.2, "pos_52w": 37.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 58, "bondness": 56}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 1780.9 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%、固定资产占比 36%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.0%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 1780.9 倍 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 151%,最大回撤 -65%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 38%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -33% / -46%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "锋龙股份:PE 比行业中位高 1730.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.3个百分点。"]}}