{"F": {"ts_code": "002930.SZ", "name": "宏川智慧", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "仓储物流", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180328", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.49, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.214, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 434646.9348, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.3, 65.3, 56.2, 57.6, 49.6, 37.6], "rev_series": [8.5, 10.9, 12.6, 15.5, 14.5, 11.9], "np_series": [2.3, 2.7, 2.2, 3.0, 1.6, -4.3], "roe_series": [11.4, 12.1, 9.5, 11.8, 6.0, -18.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.7, "np_ttm": -3.9, "ocf_ttm": 7.5, "fcf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_yield": 9.0, "ocf_yield": 17.3, "gm_median": 56.2, "gm_std": 9.3, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.1, "npm_median": 19.2, "roe_median": 9.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 53.3, "fix_assets": 50.2, "goodwill_ratio": 5.4, "pb_calc": 2.06, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 62.1, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 72.5, "debt_mv": 142.8, "payout": 63.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -2.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 294.9, "np_vol": 149.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 37.0, "fwd_pe2": 18.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 97.0, "peg": 0.38, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["码头储罐综合服务", 27.0], ["液体散货仓储综合服务", 27.0], ["化工仓库综合物流服务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -41.5, "ret_ytd": -14.7, "ret_pivot": 5.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -32.4, "ret_250": -21.9, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 44.8, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 61, "hard": 85, "bondness": 57}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -3.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 62 亿,经营现金流/市值 17.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 53%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 9.0%(经营现金流/市值 17.3%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.2%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 53%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -22%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 3% / -32%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "宏川智慧:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 45.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 35.7个百分点。"]}}