{"F": {"ts_code": "002929.SZ", "name": "润建股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信服务", "sw3": "通信工程及服务", "ind": "通信服务", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 50.65, "pe_ttm": 569.4698, "pb": 2.2199, "dv_ttm": 0.1185, "total_mv": 1450504.0635, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.1, 20.2, 19.1, 17.9, 15.7, 12.2], "rev_series": [41.9, 66.0, 81.6, 88.3, 92.0, 103.5], "np_series": [2.4, 3.5, 4.2, 4.4, 2.5, 0.4], "roe_series": [7.9, 10.0, 10.4, 8.6, 4.1, 0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 92.4, "np_ttm": 0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -1.7, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 17.9, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 4.8, "fix_assets": 10.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.5, "pb_calc": 2.22, "capex_dep": 1.74, "interest_debt": 81.7, "debt_ebitda": 29.4, "debt_ratio": 71.5, "debt_mv": 56.3, "payout": 14.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.2, "np_cagr3": -55.3, "rev_yoy": -22.8, "np_yoy": -31.7, "np_vol": 47.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 37.4, "fwd_pe2": 23.0, "fwd_g1": 1422.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 0.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["通信网络业务", 25.0], ["能源网络业务", 11.0], ["数字网络业务", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.9, "ret_prev2_year": -19.0, "ret_ytd": 27.4, "ret_pivot": 105.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.5, "ret_60": -13.0, "ret_120": 1.0, "ret_250": -1.6, "mdd_250": -55.4, "vol_250": 63.8, "pos_52w": 51.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 8, "bondness": 33}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 569.5 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 5%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(3 篇研报)前瞻 PE 37.4 倍,次年 23.0 倍,PEG 0.59。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 5%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 5%,资本开支/折旧 1.74 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 569.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -13% / 1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信服务」38 家中位:PE 82.0 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 20.1% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 34%。", "润建股份:PE 比行业中位高 487.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.3个百分点。"]}}