{"F": {"ts_code": "002928.SZ", "name": "华夏航空", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "航空机场", "sw3": "航空运输", "ind": "航空机场", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180302", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 6.43, "pe_ttm": 19.6316, "pb": 2.1116, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 821909.3488, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.9, 4.5, -47.5, -7.0, 1.8, 2.2], "rev_series": [47.3, 39.7, 26.4, 51.5, 67.0, 74.6], "np_series": [6.3, -1.1, -19.7, -9.6, 2.7, 6.3], "roe_series": [18.7, -3.0, -51.5, -27.0, 8.3, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 75.8, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 21.4, "fcf_ttm": -11.1, "fcf_yield": -13.5, "ocf_yield": 26.1, "gm_median": 1.8, "gm_std": 19.5, "gm_stab": -9.85, "gm_chg_2022": -61.4, "npm_median": -2.8, "roe_median": -3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.5, "fix_assets": 63.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 9.02, "interest_debt": 170.5, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 84.3, "debt_mv": 207.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 41.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": -82.6, "np_vol": 687.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 75.0, "earn_yield": 5.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["客运收入", 48.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.4, "ret_prev2_year": 8.7, "ret_ytd": -41.8, "ret_pivot": 23.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.5, "ret_60": -2.0, "ret_120": -30.9, "ret_250": -29.8, "mdd_250": -51.1, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 39, "pricing": 5, "hard": 41, "bondness": 15}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 4.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 20 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 170 亿,经营现金流/市值 26.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -13.5%(经营现金流/市值 26.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 1.8%,稳定度 -985%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -61.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 9.02 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 19.6 倍 粗算,约 75%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -30%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -2% / -31%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航空机场」12 家中位:PE 19.6 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 11.6% / 固定资产占比 38% / 分红率 40%。", "华夏航空:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.8个百分点。"]}}