{"F": {"ts_code": "002927.SZ", "name": "泰永长征", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20180223", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 17.33, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.8042, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 386791.9093, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.4, 33.2, 35.9, 31.2, 28.9, 28.0], "rev_series": [7.8, 9.5, 9.0, 10.4, 8.9, 8.5], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4, -0.1], "roe_series": [10.3, 10.8, 7.2, 7.1, 3.7, -0.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.2, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_yield": -0.0, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 31.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -2.5, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 7.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.9, "fix_assets": 2.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 3.8, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 8.2, "debt_ratio": 40.2, "debt_mv": 4.5, "payout": 50.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -5.6, "np_yoy": -19.0, "np_vol": 45.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["配电电器", 55.0], ["电源电器", 24.0], ["配网设备", 20.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.2, "ret_prev2_year": -4.9, "ret_ytd": -13.7, "ret_pivot": 71.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.5, "ret_60": -5.5, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": 5.7, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 60.9, "pos_52w": 70.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 53, "hard": 27, "bondness": 53}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 40%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 31.2%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 31.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 61%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -6% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "泰永长征:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点。"]}}