{"F": {"ts_code": "002920.SZ", "name": "德赛西威", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 88.0, "pe_ttm": 21.2141, "pb": 3.2679, "dv_ttm": 1.4137, "total_mv": 5251921.84, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.4, 24.6, 23.0, 20.4, 19.9, 19.1], "rev_series": [68.0, 95.7, 149.3, 219.1, 276.2, 325.6], "np_series": [5.2, 8.3, 11.8, 15.5, 20.0, 24.5], "roe_series": [11.7, 16.7, 20.0, 21.4, 22.8, 19.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 328.1, "np_ttm": 24.8, "ocf_ttm": 23.1, "fcf_ttm": 4.0, "fcf_yield": 0.8, "ocf_yield": 4.4, "gm_median": 20.4, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 20.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 42.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.27, "capex_dep": 3.42, "interest_debt": 7.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.2, "debt_ratio": 46.8, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 29.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 29.7, "np_cagr3": 27.5, "rev_yoy": 1.8, "np_yoy": 1.8, "np_vol": 13.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.7, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 18.6, "fwd_pe2": 15.7, "fwd_g1": 14.0, "fwd_g2": 18.0, "peg": 1.03, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["智能座舱", 60.0], ["智能驾驶", 24.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0], ["其他", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.6, "ret_prev2_year": -14.7, "ret_ytd": -26.1, "ret_pivot": -5.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": 2.9, "ret_120": -24.1, "ret_250": -25.9, "mdd_250": -47.6, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 58.7}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 49, "hard": 22, "bondness": 20}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 21.2 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.4%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 3.42 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 21.2 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / 3% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "德赛西威:PE 比行业中位低 61.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 28.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.0个百分点。"]}}