{"F": {"ts_code": "002919.SZ", "name": "名臣健康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "游戏Ⅱ", "sw3": "游戏Ⅲ", "ind": "游戏Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171218", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.13, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 6.1149, "dv_ttm": 0.2739, "total_mv": 482504.7493, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [42.4, 50.4, 52.5, 60.3, 52.5, 54.1], "rev_series": [6.8, 7.4, 9.5, 16.4, 13.8, 15.1], "np_series": [1.0, 1.3, 0.3, 0.7, 0.5, 0.3], "roe_series": [16.7, 18.9, 3.4, 9.1, 5.7, 3.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.0, "np_ttm": -0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 1.3, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 52.5, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 10.1, "npm_median": 3.4, "roe_median": 5.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.2, "fix_assets": 0.4, "goodwill_ratio": 8.4, "pb_calc": 6.11, "capex_dep": 7.88, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 35.9, "debt_mv": 1.6, "payout": 46.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 17.0, "np_cagr3": 3.8, "rev_yoy": 25.9, "np_yoy": -112.3, "np_vol": 90.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["网络游戏", 32.0], ["日化用品", 12.0], ["日化产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.7, "ret_ytd": -21.0, "ret_pivot": 51.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.7, "ret_60": -8.2, "ret_120": -21.1, "ret_250": 14.5, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 51.8, "pos_52w": 65.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 70, "hard": 5, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 0 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 36%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 52.5%),硬资产占比 3%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 52.5%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 3%,资本开支/折旧 7.88 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 14%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -8% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「游戏Ⅱ」26 家中位:PE 24.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 60.8% / 固定资产占比 4% / 分红率 43%。", "名臣健康:PE ;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点。"]}}