{"F": {"ts_code": "002918.SZ", "name": "蒙娜丽莎", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "瓷砖地板", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171219", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.94, "pe_ttm": 41.636, "pb": 1.3729, "dv_ttm": 0.7313, "total_mv": 447248.9706, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.3, 29.1, 23.6, 29.5, 27.3, 27.3], "rev_series": [48.6, 69.9, 62.3, 59.2, 46.3, 39.2], "np_series": [5.7, 3.1, -3.8, 2.7, 1.2, 0.5], "roe_series": [17.8, 8.6, -10.8, 7.9, 3.7, 1.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 37.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 6.8, "fcf_ttm": 6.0, "fcf_yield": 13.4, "ocf_yield": 15.1, "gm_median": 27.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -10.6, "npm_median": 2.8, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.7, "fix_assets": 26.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.35, "capex_dep": 0.21, "interest_debt": 14.8, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 46.0, "debt_mv": 33.2, "payout": 61.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -14.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -8.7, "np_yoy": 970.2, "np_vol": 124.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 33.4, "fwd_pe2": 27.6, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 21.0, "peg": 1.59, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["瓷质有釉砖", 41.0], ["陶瓷板、薄型陶瓷砖", 7.0], ["非瓷质有釉砖", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 37.6, "ret_prev2_year": -20.7, "ret_ytd": -22.7, "ret_pivot": 58.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.9, "ret_60": -5.4, "ret_120": -15.7, "ret_250": -13.4, "mdd_250": -54.3, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 59.0}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 50, "hard": 62, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.4%(经营现金流/市值 15.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.21 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.6 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / -5% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "蒙娜丽莎:PE 比行业中位高 13.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点。"]}}