{"F": {"ts_code": "002917.SZ", "name": "金奥博", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "民爆制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171208", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.58, "pe_ttm": 20.8655, "pb": 2.0423, "dv_ttm": 1.4079, "total_mv": 367775.8236, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.4, 25.7, 26.9, 32.2, 34.0, 36.4], "rev_series": [6.3, 8.2, 11.9, 15.1, 16.3, 17.7], "np_series": [0.7, 0.4, 0.3, 1.0, 1.2, 1.7], "roe_series": [9.4, 5.2, 2.3, 6.9, 8.0, 10.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.3, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_yield": 6.4, "ocf_yield": 6.8, "gm_median": 32.2, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.5, "npm_median": 7.1, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 19.7, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.9, "pb_calc": 2.04, "capex_dep": 0.25, "interest_debt": 3.9, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 33.9, "debt_mv": 10.6, "payout": 29.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 90.5, "rev_yoy": -4.4, "np_yoy": 1.9, "np_vol": 126.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["化工材料", 18.0], ["工业炸药", 11.0], ["起爆器材", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 42.1, "ret_prev2_year": -2.2, "ret_ytd": -20.0, "ret_pivot": 44.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -9.2, "ret_120": -23.8, "ret_250": -28.6, "mdd_250": -36.1, "vol_250": 29.3, "pos_52w": 71.4}, "S": {"duration": 41, "pricing": 51, "hard": 32, "bondness": 28}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.9 倍、股息率 1.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.2%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.4%(经营现金流/市值 6.8%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.2%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 0.25 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.9 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -29%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -9% / -24%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "金奥博:PE 比行业中位低 15.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 14.8个百分点。"]}}