{"F": {"ts_code": "002916.SZ", "name": "深南电路", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 331.8, "pe_ttm": 54.236, "pb": 12.5352, "dv_ttm": 0.7233, "total_mv": 22601107.788, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.5, 23.7, 25.5, 23.4, 24.8, 28.3], "rev_series": [116.0, 139.4, 139.9, 135.3, 179.1, 236.5], "np_series": [14.3, 14.8, 16.4, 14.0, 18.8, 32.8], "roe_series": [23.0, 18.6, 15.8, 11.0, 13.5, 20.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 284.9, "np_ttm": 41.7, "ocf_ttm": 38.4, "fcf_ttm": -30.5, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 24.8, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 10.6, "roe_median": 15.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.7, "fix_assets": 182.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 12.54, "capex_dep": 4.13, "interest_debt": 80.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 55.7, "debt_mv": 3.5, "payout": 41.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.1, "np_cagr3": 25.9, "rev_yoy": 46.3, "np_yoy": 65.5, "np_vol": 30.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 21, "fwd_pe": 39.5, "fwd_pe2": 27.2, "fwd_g1": 37.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.88, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["印制电路板", 28.0], ["封装基板", 12.0], ["电子装联", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 148.3, "ret_prev2_year": 83.9, "ret_ytd": 44.3, "ret_pivot": 418.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.3, "ret_60": -11.8, "ret_120": 33.9, "ret_250": 109.1, "mdd_250": -37.9, "vol_250": 71.1, "pos_52w": 72.5}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 52, "hard": 72, "bondness": 23}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 54.2 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%、固定资产占比 45%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.2 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 24.8%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 4.13 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.2 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 109%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -12% / 34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "深南电路:PE 比行业中位低 11.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.8个百分点。"]}}