{"F": {"ts_code": "002915.SZ", "name": "中欣氟材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "氟化工", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171205", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.06, "pe_ttm": 339.4893, "pb": 4.0341, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 605503.5798, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.7, 24.8, 22.6, 13.6, 8.3, 15.4], "rev_series": [10.3, 15.3, 16.0, 13.4, 14.0, 15.7], "np_series": [1.2, 1.7, 1.8, -1.9, -1.9, 0.2], "roe_series": [11.5, 13.4, 11.1, -11.7, -13.3, 1.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.9, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -4.3, "ocf_yield": -2.1, "gm_median": 15.4, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": -3.1, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 1.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 50.3, "fix_assets": 18.3, "goodwill_ratio": 3.6, "pb_calc": 4.03, "capex_dep": 0.68, "interest_debt": 14.5, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 51.9, "debt_mv": 23.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -0.7, "np_cagr3": -53.3, "rev_yoy": 2.7, "np_yoy": -18.2, "np_vol": 104.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["基础氟化工产品", 22.0], ["农药化工产品", 11.0], ["新材料和电子化学品", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.7, "ret_prev2_year": -30.0, "ret_ytd": -26.3, "ret_pivot": 104.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.1, "ret_60": -18.0, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -36.0, "mdd_250": -49.9, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 58.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 34, "hard": 80, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 50%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 15.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 50%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 61%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.3%(经营现金流/市值 -2.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.4%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 50%,资本开支/折旧 0.68 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 339.5 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -1% / -18% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "中欣氟材:PE 比行业中位高 303.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 15.8个百分点。"]}}