{"F": {"ts_code": "002913.SZ", "name": "奥士康", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171201", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.0, "pe_ttm": 99.4198, "pb": 4.3999, "dv_ttm": 0.4873, "total_mv": 1935899.0744, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 22.3, 23.6, 26.5, 23.2, 20.9], "rev_series": [29.1, 44.4, 45.7, 43.3, 45.7, 55.3], "np_series": [3.5, 4.9, 3.1, 5.2, 3.5, 3.1], "roe_series": [13.5, 15.6, 8.4, 13.1, 8.3, 7.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 59.5, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.8, "fcf_yield": -2.5, "ocf_yield": 1.3, "gm_median": 23.2, "gm_std": 1.9, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 7.7, "roe_median": 8.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.3, "fix_assets": 43.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.4, "capex_dep": 1.67, "interest_debt": 15.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.8, "debt_ratio": 50.5, "debt_mv": 8.0, "payout": 54.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 6.6, "np_cagr3": 0.1, "rev_yoy": 16.5, "np_yoy": -57.8, "np_vol": 42.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 40.8, "fwd_pe2": 28.0, "fwd_g1": 144.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.91, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["四层板及以上板", 37.0], ["单/双面板", 8.0], ["其他业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 82.9, "ret_prev2_year": -21.2, "ret_ytd": 43.7, "ret_pivot": 188.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.1, "ret_60": 11.5, "ret_120": 28.2, "ret_250": 58.6, "mdd_250": -45.6, "vol_250": 61.8, "pos_52w": 87.1}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 50, "hard": 77, "bondness": 41}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 99.4 倍、股息率 0.5%、毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 23.2%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.67 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 99.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 59%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 87%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 12% / 28%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "奥士康:PE 比行业中位高 34.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 12.4个百分点。"]}}