{"F": {"ts_code": "002911.SZ", "name": "佛燃能源", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "燃气Ⅱ", "sw3": "燃气Ⅲ", "ind": "燃气Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.51, "pe_ttm": 14.2222, "pb": 3.379, "dv_ttm": 4.5182, "total_mv": 1494200.3458, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.5, 12.0, 9.9, 7.7, 6.1, 6.2], "rev_series": [75.1, 135.3, 189.2, 255.4, 315.9, 336.0], "np_series": [4.7, 5.9, 6.6, 8.4, 8.5, 10.3], "roe_series": [14.4, 15.2, 13.2, 14.1, 11.4, 11.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 313.3, "np_ttm": 10.5, "ocf_ttm": 25.6, "fcf_ttm": 19.7, "fcf_yield": 13.2, "ocf_yield": 17.1, "gm_median": 7.7, "gm_std": 2.3, "gm_stab": 0.71, "gm_chg_2022": -5.6, "npm_median": 3.5, "roe_median": 13.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.1, "fix_assets": 77.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.82, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 46.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 50.6, "debt_mv": 30.9, "payout": 72.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 21.1, "np_cagr3": 16.3, "rev_yoy": -14.8, "np_yoy": 6.6, "np_vol": 10.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 65.0, "earn_yield": 7.0, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 13.4, "fwd_pe2": 12.2, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 10.0, "peg": 1.34, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["能源材料服务业务", 34.0], ["供应链业务", 34.0], ["城市燃气业务", 29.0], ["能碳业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.3, "ret_prev2_year": 58.3, "ret_ytd": -0.8, "ret_pivot": 28.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.1, "ret_60": 10.9, "ret_120": -23.8, "ret_250": 3.2, "mdd_250": -45.8, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 30, "pricing": 32, "hard": 66, "bondness": 60}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 10个百分点,营收 3 年复合 21.1%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 72%、股息率 4.5%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 46 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 2.6 倍,资产负债率 51%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 4.5% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 14.2 倍 倒过来就是 7.0% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.7%,稳定度 71%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 13.2%(经营现金流/市值 17.1%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.7%,稳定度 71%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 14.2 倍 粗算,约 65%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 11% / -24%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「燃气Ⅱ」30 家中位:PE 22.2 / 股息率 2.5% / 毛利率 15.7% / 固定资产占比 47% / 分红率 50%。", "佛燃能源:PE 比行业中位低 8.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}