{"F": {"ts_code": "002910.SZ", "name": "庄园牧场", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "食品饮料", "sw2": "饮料乳品", "sw3": "乳品", "ind": "饮料乳品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171031", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.16, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.9908, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 198668.0304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.0, 23.8, 19.0, 18.9, 15.8, 24.0], "rev_series": [7.4, 10.2, 10.5, 9.6, 8.9, 9.2], "np_series": [0.1, 0.5, 0.6, -0.8, -1.7, -0.7], "roe_series": [0.7, 3.3, 4.1, -6.2, -14.1, -7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.8, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 1.2, "ocf_yield": 7.6, "gm_median": 19.0, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -8.9, "npm_median": -8.1, "roe_median": -6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.4, "fix_assets": 11.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.99, "capex_dep": 1.39, "interest_debt": 10.0, "debt_ebitda": 9.4, "debt_ratio": 55.4, "debt_mv": 50.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -4.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.4, "np_yoy": 11.4, "np_vol": 216.5, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["液体乳", 44.0], ["其他乳制品等", 3.0], ["其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 47.5, "ret_prev2_year": -31.2, "ret_ytd": -8.6, "ret_pivot": 56.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.3, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -13.5, "ret_250": -1.2, "mdd_250": -47.3, "vol_250": 56.9, "pos_52w": 67.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 42, "hard": 84, "bondness": 35}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.0%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 9.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 83%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.2%(经营现金流/市值 7.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.0%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.39 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -1%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 57%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 4% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饮料乳品」27 家中位:PE 29.0 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 29.2% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 52%。", "庄园牧场:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.7个百分点。"]}}