{"F": {"ts_code": "002909.SZ", "name": "集泰股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "有机硅", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171026", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.21, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.2825, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 281190.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.2, 21.0, 21.5, 25.1, 25.3, 25.6], "rev_series": [12.6, 16.8, 14.5, 13.3, 12.8, 10.9], "np_series": [1.1, 0.5, 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, -0.3], "roe_series": [16.2, 6.0, 1.2, 1.2, 2.1, -3.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.4, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_yield": -3.1, "ocf_yield": 3.2, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 2.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -9.7, "npm_median": 0.8, "roe_median": 1.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 45.4, "fix_assets": 10.7, "goodwill_ratio": 1.1, "pb_calc": 3.28, "capex_dep": 2.8, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 11.1, "debt_ratio": 63.8, "debt_mv": 28.1, "payout": 194.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -9.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -9.1, "np_yoy": -64.6, "np_vol": 109.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["建筑类用胶", 25.0], ["工业类用胶", 13.0], ["涂料", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 39.8, "ret_prev2_year": -34.9, "ret_ytd": 5.9, "ret_pivot": 90.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 44.2, "ret_60": 29.7, "ret_120": -0.7, "ret_250": 2.7, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 46.9, "pos_52w": 88.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 73, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 64%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 2.80 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 3%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 88%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 44% / 30% / -1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "集泰股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.9个百分点。"]}}