{"F": {"ts_code": "002906.SZ", "name": "华阳集团", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171013", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.45, "pe_ttm": 17.7461, "pb": 2.0937, "dv_ttm": 1.7575, "total_mv": 1493394.555, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.6, 21.6, 22.1, 22.4, 20.7, 18.4], "rev_series": [33.7, 44.9, 56.4, 71.4, 101.6, 130.5], "np_series": [1.8, 3.0, 3.8, 4.6, 6.5, 7.8], "roe_series": [5.2, 8.0, 9.4, 9.1, 10.5, 11.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 146.6, "np_ttm": 8.4, "ocf_ttm": 11.7, "fcf_ttm": -0.7, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 7.8, "gm_median": 21.6, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -1.5, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.8, "fix_assets": 38.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 2.09, "capex_dep": 3.27, "interest_debt": 6.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 53.2, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 37.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 32.3, "np_cagr3": 27.1, "rev_yoy": 30.4, "np_yoy": 17.6, "np_vol": 16.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 72.0, "earn_yield": 5.6, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 15.7, "fwd_pe2": 12.8, "fwd_g1": 13.0, "fwd_g2": 23.0, "peg": 0.68, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["汽车电子", 37.0], ["精密压铸", 11.0], ["其他(含其他业务收入)", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 1.0, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": -5.4, "ret_pivot": 20.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.1, "ret_60": 13.7, "ret_120": -4.4, "ret_250": -10.6, "mdd_250": -32.8, "vol_250": 36.8, "pos_52w": 82.7}, "S": {"duration": 36, "pricing": 50, "hard": 40, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 17.7 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 7.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.6%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.5 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 3.27 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 17.7 倍 粗算,约 72%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 83%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 14% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "华阳集团:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点。"]}}