{"F": {"ts_code": "002900.SZ", "name": "哈三联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170922", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.24, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.2401, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 387218.0304, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.3, 67.3, 64.5, 59.9, 51.2, 37.7], "rev_series": [13.4, 9.5, 10.3, 11.9, 11.3, 7.9], "np_series": [0.3, 3.5, 0.3, 0.7, 0.6, -3.4], "roe_series": [1.6, 18.1, 1.5, 3.5, 2.7, -17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.1, "np_ttm": -2.9, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 59.9, "gm_std": 10.7, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 2.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 44.6, "fix_assets": 14.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.24, "capex_dep": 1.28, "interest_debt": 8.9, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.9, "debt_mv": 23.1, "payout": 94.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 3.8, "np_yoy": 52.2, "np_vol": 574.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["大输液", 16.0], ["固体制剂", 9.0], ["小容量注射剂", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 29.1, "ret_prev2_year": -27.2, "ret_ytd": -1.8, "ret_pivot": 54.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.2, "ret_60": 25.2, "ret_120": 2.9, "ret_250": -19.5, "mdd_250": -38.8, "vol_250": 51.7, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 67, "hard": 71, "bondness": 56}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -2.9 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 46%,有息负债 9 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 45%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 59.9%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 45%,资本开支/折旧 1.28 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 25% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "哈三联:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.8个百分点。"]}}