{"F": {"ts_code": "002899.SZ", "name": "英派斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.75, "pe_ttm": 50.5667, "pb": 1.5966, "dv_ttm": 0.4389, "total_mv": 277119.375, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.8, 25.6, 26.2, 31.9, 31.7, 26.8], "rev_series": [8.7, 8.6, 8.2, 9.0, 12.1, 11.8], "np_series": [0.4, 0.2, 0.7, 0.9, 1.1, 0.6], "roe_series": [3.7, 1.6, 5.8, 7.3, 7.4, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.0, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.3, "gm_median": 26.8, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -6.6, "npm_median": 8.0, "roe_median": 5.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.6, "fix_assets": 13.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.6, "capex_dep": 1.22, "interest_debt": 6.4, "debt_ebitda": 4.0, "debt_ratio": 39.0, "debt_mv": 23.2, "payout": 9.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.6, "np_cagr3": -1.4, "rev_yoy": 4.3, "np_yoy": -25.8, "np_vol": 120.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 90.0, "earn_yield": 2.0, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 36.6, "fwd_pe2": 26.8, "fwd_g1": 38.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 0.99, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["商用产品", 28.0], ["商用", 28.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 22.6, "ret_prev2_year": 36.4, "ret_ytd": -31.3, "ret_pivot": 37.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.7, "ret_60": -22.0, "ret_120": -41.9, "ret_250": -19.2, "mdd_250": -48.5, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 54.2}, "S": {"duration": 72, "pricing": 49, "hard": 76, "bondness": 25}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 50.6 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 1.22 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 50.6 倍 粗算,约 90%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -22% / -42%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "英派斯:PE 比行业中位高 3.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.1个百分点。"]}}