{"F": {"ts_code": "002896.SZ", "name": "中大力德", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 62.63, "pe_ttm": 278.9977, "pb": 10.2989, "dv_ttm": 0.1916, "total_mv": 1230821.6701, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [26.9, 26.2, 24.1, 22.9, 25.9, 26.1], "rev_series": [7.6, 9.5, 9.0, 10.9, 9.8, 10.4], "np_series": [0.7, 0.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [10.6, 11.2, 7.3, 6.8, 6.3, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.2, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 25.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 7.4, "roe_median": 6.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.2, "fix_assets": 10.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 10.3, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 3.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 39.9, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.1, "np_cagr3": -1.9, "rev_yoy": 15.6, "np_yoy": -40.1, "np_vol": 13.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 4, "fwd_pe": 135.4, "fwd_pe2": 116.5, "fwd_g1": 106.0, "fwd_g2": 16.0, "peg": 8.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["智能执行单元", 21.0], ["减速电机", 16.0], ["精密减速器", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 205.3, "ret_prev2_year": 6.0, "ret_ytd": -29.8, "ret_pivot": 232.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -20.7, "ret_60": -23.1, "ret_120": -18.4, "ret_250": -36.6, "mdd_250": -43.8, "vol_250": 56.5, "pos_52w": 59.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 84, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 279.0 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%、固定资产占比 52%、有息负债/EBITDA 2.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.9%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 279.0 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -21% / -23% / -18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "中大力德:PE 比行业中位高 228.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 31.4个百分点。"]}}