{"F": {"ts_code": "002895.SZ", "name": "川恒股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "农化制品", "sw3": "磷肥及磷化工", "ind": "农化制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170825", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 33.6, "pe_ttm": 15.8498, "pb": 2.7514, "dv_ttm": 5.3574, "total_mv": 2035717.824, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 28.4, 44.9, 39.0, 33.1, 30.3], "rev_series": [17.8, 25.3, 34.5, 43.2, 59.1, 83.3], "np_series": [1.4, 3.7, 7.6, 7.7, 9.6, 12.6], "roe_series": [5.8, 11.3, 19.1, 15.1, 16.0, 18.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 90.3, "np_ttm": 12.8, "ocf_ttm": 9.5, "fcf_ttm": 5.7, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 4.7, "gm_median": 33.1, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 20.3, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 16.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.6, "fix_assets": 50.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.75, "capex_dep": 0.92, "interest_debt": 33.4, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 38.1, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": 68.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 34.2, "np_cagr3": 18.5, "rev_yoy": 20.8, "np_yoy": 4.5, "np_vol": 58.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 68.0, "earn_yield": 6.3, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 13.5, "fwd_pe2": 11.4, "fwd_g1": 18.0, "fwd_g2": 19.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["饲料级磷酸二氢钙", 30.0], ["磷酸", 26.0], ["磷酸一铵", 17.0], ["磷酸铁", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 63.7, "ret_prev2_year": 44.9, "ret_ytd": -3.6, "ret_pivot": 141.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": 8.7, "ret_120": -17.2, "ret_250": 36.4, "mdd_250": -33.9, "vol_250": 45.6, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 33, "pricing": 56, "hard": 59, "bondness": 58}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["股息率≥4%", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 68%、股息率 5.4%、营收 3 年复合 34.2%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.5 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 37%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 4.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.1%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 20.3 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 37%,资本开支/折旧 0.92 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 15.8 倍 粗算,约 68%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 36%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 9% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农化制品」62 家中位:PE 20.8 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 19.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 45%。", "川恒股份:PE 比行业中位低 5.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 3.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.0个百分点。"]}}