{"F": {"ts_code": "002893.SZ", "name": "京能热力", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "公用事业", "sw2": "电力", "sw3": "热力服务", "ind": "电力", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.59, "pe_ttm": 42.7034, "pb": 2.1149, "dv_ttm": 0.8593, "total_mv": 279194.76, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [13.4, 16.2, 15.1, 16.2, 19.7, 21.4], "rev_series": [9.5, 10.1, 10.3, 10.9, 10.7, 13.3], "np_series": [0.3, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [4.6, 4.4, 4.8, 5.8, 5.8, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 3.9, "ocf_yield": 11.6, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 4.9, "roe_median": 5.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.5, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 1.3, "pb_calc": 2.11, "capex_dep": 2.86, "interest_debt": 4.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.9, "debt_ratio": 43.6, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": 37.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": 26.4, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": 2.6, "np_vol": 27.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["热力服务收入", 30.0], ["传统能源供热服务", 30.0], ["系统集成安装及工程收入", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 12.1, "ret_prev2_year": -6.6, "ret_ytd": -4.6, "ret_pivot": 25.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.6, "ret_60": 8.1, "ret_120": -7.3, "ret_250": -7.9, "mdd_250": -34.5, "vol_250": 41.4, "pos_52w": 75.6}, "S": {"duration": 66, "pricing": 47, "hard": 41, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 42.7 倍、股息率 0.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.9 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.9%(经营现金流/市值 11.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 2.86 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.7 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 76%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 8% / -7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电力」109 家中位:PE 27.8 / 股息率 1.8% / 毛利率 22.5% / 固定资产占比 61% / 分红率 42%。", "京能热力:PE 比行业中位高 14.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 35.2个百分点。"]}}