{"F": {"ts_code": "002891.SZ", "name": "中宠股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "饲料", "sw3": "宠物食品", "ind": "饲料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170821", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 28.61, "pe_ttm": 31.8975, "pb": 2.7244, "dv_ttm": 0.8038, "total_mv": 920949.3197, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.7, 20.0, 19.8, 26.3, 28.2, 29.5], "rev_series": [22.3, 28.8, 32.5, 37.5, 44.6, 52.2], "np_series": [1.3, 1.2, 1.1, 2.3, 3.9, 3.7], "roe_series": [10.5, 6.5, 5.5, 10.8, 16.9, 13.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 60.7, "np_ttm": 2.9, "ocf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.2, "fcf_yield": -5.7, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 26.3, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 7.6, "roe_median": 10.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.9, "fix_assets": 19.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.5, "pb_calc": 2.72, "capex_dep": 4.41, "interest_debt": 18.6, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 44.0, "debt_mv": 20.2, "payout": 29.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.1, "np_cagr3": 51.1, "rev_yoy": 34.9, "np_yoy": -37.6, "np_vol": 53.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 84.0, "earn_yield": 3.1, "consensus_n": 29, "fwd_pe": 25.3, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 26.0, "fwd_g2": 36.0, "peg": 0.7, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["宠物零食", 30.0], ["宠物主粮", 15.0], ["宠物用品及其他", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 46.7, "ret_prev2_year": 38.9, "ret_ytd": -44.5, "ret_pivot": 48.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.5, "ret_60": 5.3, "ret_120": -33.8, "ret_250": -52.5, "mdd_250": -57.1, "vol_250": 40.3, "pos_52w": 47.5}, "S": {"duration": 55, "pricing": 46, "hard": 48, "bondness": 29}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 31.9 倍、股息率 0.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%、固定资产占比 30%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 30%,毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 26.3%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 30%,资本开支/折旧 4.41 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 31.9 倍 粗算,约 84%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -52%,最大回撤 -57%,年化波动 40%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 5% / -34%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饲料」19 家中位:PE 44.7 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 9.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 40%。", "中宠股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点。"]}}