{"F": {"ts_code": "002890.SZ", "name": "弘宇股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "农用机械", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170802", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.59, "pe_ttm": 243.5313, "pb": 4.3802, "dv_ttm": 0.1668, "total_mv": 264835.4368, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [16.5, 17.1, 16.0, 18.0, 17.0, 16.8], "rev_series": [4.1, 4.1, 4.0, 3.6, 3.2, 3.0], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.1], "roe_series": [4.3, 4.4, 3.9, 3.7, 2.8, 1.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.1, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.1, "ocf_yield": -0.3, "gm_median": 17.0, "gm_std": 0.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.5, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 3.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 25.0, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.38, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 42.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -9.0, "np_cagr3": -22.9, "rev_yoy": 5.7, "np_yoy": 6.3, "np_vol": 15.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["提升器总成", 69.0], ["其他配件", 31.0]], "ret_prev_year": 48.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.6, "ret_ytd": 7.0, "ret_pivot": 90.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 6.2, "ret_120": -3.8, "ret_250": 1.2, "mdd_250": -32.3, "vol_250": 37.0, "pos_52w": 89.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 40, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 243.5 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%、固定资产占比 25%、资产负债率 20%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 25%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.1%(经营现金流/市值 -0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.0%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 243.5 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 1%,最大回撤 -32%,年化波动 37%,现价在 52 周高点的 89%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 6% / -4%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "弘宇股份:PE 比行业中位高 201.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.0个百分点。"]}}