{"F": {"ts_code": "002889.SZ", "name": "东方嘉盛", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "交通运输", "sw2": "物流", "sw3": "中间产品及消费品供应链服务", "ind": "物流", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170731", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.16, "pe_ttm": 20.721, "pb": 1.7261, "dv_ttm": 0.2467, "total_mv": 459243.68, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [12.6, 14.1, 12.7, 12.7, 11.2, 10.3], "rev_series": [26.9, 27.6, 28.3, 26.9, 35.5, 37.3], "np_series": [2.0, 2.4, 1.5, 1.6, 1.9, 1.0], "roe_series": [11.9, 12.8, 7.7, 7.4, 8.3, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.1, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.2, "fcf_yield": -2.6, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 7.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.1, "fix_assets": 6.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 1.73, "capex_dep": 6.26, "interest_debt": 14.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 41.7, "debt_mv": 32.1, "payout": 10.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.7, "np_cagr3": -12.8, "rev_yoy": -48.4, "np_yoy": 148.9, "np_vol": 27.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 76.0, "earn_yield": 4.8, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["服务类", 24.0], ["服务模式", 24.0], ["交易模式", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.5, "ret_prev2_year": 9.9, "ret_ytd": -20.7, "ret_pivot": 2.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.4, "ret_60": 7.6, "ret_120": -13.8, "ret_250": -26.3, "mdd_250": -38.6, "vol_250": 28.7, "pos_52w": 72.7}, "S": {"duration": 40, "pricing": 45, "hard": 21, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 20.7 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%、固定资产占比 13%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 6.26 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 20.7 倍 粗算,约 76%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 29%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 8% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「物流」48 家中位:PE 21.4 / 股息率 2.1% / 毛利率 10.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 43%。", "东方嘉盛:PE 比行业中位低 0.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.5个百分点。"]}}