{"F": {"ts_code": "002887.SZ", "name": "绿茵生态", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "综合环境治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170801", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 9.28, "pe_ttm": 26.653, "pb": 1.2381, "dv_ttm": 3.2328, "total_mv": 283956.6784, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.4, 38.7, 42.3, 38.6, 46.4, 49.8], "rev_series": [9.5, 5.9, 5.9, 4.0, 4.0, 4.7], "np_series": [2.8, 1.7, 1.5, 1.1, 1.0, 1.2], "roe_series": [13.9, 7.6, 6.8, 4.8, 4.2, 5.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": 3.4, "ocf_yield": 3.4, "gm_median": 42.3, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 26.5, "roe_median": 5.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 0.7, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.2, "capex_dep": 0.11, "interest_debt": 9.8, "debt_ebitda": 13.4, "debt_ratio": 37.3, "debt_mv": 34.5, "payout": 75.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -6.9, "np_cagr3": -7.6, "rev_yoy": -19.4, "np_yoy": -25.3, "np_vol": 20.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.8, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 20.2, "fwd_pe2": 17.5, "fwd_g1": 32.0, "fwd_g2": 15.0, "peg": 1.35, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["绿地维护项目", 28.0], ["生态环境修复与绿地维护：绿地维护项目", 28.0], ["生态环境修复与绿地维护：生态修复项目", 16.0], ["生态修复项目", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.1, "ret_prev2_year": -18.5, "ret_ytd": 2.4, "ret_pivot": 86.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -20.7, "ret_120": -20.4, "ret_250": 5.8, "mdd_250": -40.7, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 60.8}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 62, "hard": 1, "bondness": 81}, "label": "债券代理股", "tags": ["现金流红利"], "text": {"像什么": ["现金流像票息:近 5 年净利润增速波动 21个百分点,营收 3 年复合 -6.9%,利润在窄区间里波动。", "分红率 75%、股息率 3.2%,每年派多少钱几乎可以预测。", "杠杆:有息负债 10 亿,有息负债/EBITDA 13.4 倍,资产负债率 37%。利率升财务费用直接吃利润。", "定价方式是利差:市场看的是股息率 3.2% 比十年期国债高多少。PE 26.7 倍 倒过来就是 3.8% 的盈利收益率,这是债的定价。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 42.3%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。 另外它被市场当长债替代品交易:利率上行时跟长债一起跌,不跟硬资产一起涨,这个标签贴错会亏钱。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期跟长债走,承压;国内降息周期反而受益。拿它盯国内十年期国债收益率,不要盯黄金和美元。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 42.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 0.11 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.7 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 6%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 61%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -21% / -20%。 债券代理股的波动应该低;波动偏高,市场没完全把它当债。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "绿茵生态:PE 比行业中位高 0.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.2个百分点。"]}}