{"F": {"ts_code": "002886.SZ", "name": "沃特股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "塑料", "sw3": "改性塑料", "ind": "塑料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.11, "pe_ttm": 90.0233, "pb": 3.5665, "dv_ttm": 0.2987, "total_mv": 660904.2396, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 15.1, 15.0, 18.3, 17.8, 16.5], "rev_series": [11.5, 15.4, 14.9, 15.4, 19.0, 20.5], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 0.1, 0.1, 0.4, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.2, 5.6, 1.3, 0.4, 2.1, 3.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 22.2, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 2.1, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": 16.5, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 2.1, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.3, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 3.57, "capex_dep": 0.83, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 5.4, "debt_ratio": 48.1, "debt_mv": 18.1, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.2, "np_cagr3": 64.0, "rev_yoy": 18.0, "np_yoy": 49.0, "np_vol": 221.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.1, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 67.3, "fwd_pe2": 42.1, "fwd_g1": 34.0, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 1.12, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种高分子材料", 53.0], ["工程塑料合金", 28.0], ["改性通用塑料", 14.0], ["其他业务", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.2, "ret_prev2_year": -19.0, "ret_ytd": 16.0, "ret_pivot": 103.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 27.9, "ret_60": -9.7, "ret_120": 7.5, "ret_250": 14.9, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 54.0, "pos_52w": 77.3}, "S": {"duration": 89, "pricing": 45, "hard": 64, "bondness": 36}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 92%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.1%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 90.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 15%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 28% / -10% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「塑料」77 家中位:PE 41.1 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 16.9% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 40%。", "沃特股份:PE 比行业中位高 48.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.4个百分点。"]}}