{"F": {"ts_code": "002885.SZ", "name": "京泉华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170627", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 27.73, "pe_ttm": 65.6703, "pb": 4.7715, "dv_ttm": 0.1262, "total_mv": 751252.841, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.4, 11.3, 14.7, 12.7, 12.5, 12.9], "rev_series": [13.1, 19.1, 25.8, 25.9, 30.1, 33.5], "np_series": [0.3, 0.2, 1.4, 0.3, 0.4, 0.8], "roe_series": [4.1, 2.5, 16.2, 2.9, 2.7, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.6, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 3.1, "gm_median": 12.7, "gm_std": 1.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 0.2, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.4, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.77, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 6.5, "debt_ebitda": 2.6, "debt_ratio": 57.4, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": 11.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 9.0, "np_cagr3": -16.1, "rev_yoy": 12.1, "np_yoy": 73.1, "np_vol": 252.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 51.4, "fwd_pe2": 29.5, "fwd_g1": 28.0, "fwd_g2": 74.0, "peg": 0.69, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["特种变压器", 21.0], ["磁性元器件", 20.0], ["电源", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 80.8, "ret_prev2_year": -21.4, "ret_ytd": 8.1, "ret_pivot": 148.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -28.0, "ret_120": -6.5, "ret_250": 72.2, "mdd_250": -58.4, "vol_250": 70.7, "pos_52w": 51.7}, "S": {"duration": 81, "pricing": 46, "hard": 21, "bondness": 24}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["成长兑现", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 65.7 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 51.4 倍,次年 29.5 倍,PEG 0.69。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 13%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.1%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.7%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.7 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 72%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -28% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "京泉华:PE 比行业中位高 14.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}