{"F": {"ts_code": "002882.SZ", "name": "金龙羽", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170717", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.3, "pe_ttm": 133.7216, "pb": 4.9835, "dv_ttm": 0.4115, "total_mv": 1051947.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.0, 12.9, 13.0, 13.2, 12.6, 10.5], "rev_series": [32.0, 45.9, 39.7, 39.3, 36.8, 46.5], "np_series": [1.9, 0.5, 2.2, 1.6, 1.4, 1.1], "roe_series": [10.1, 2.7, 11.4, 8.0, 6.6, 5.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": -6.0, "fcf_ttm": -10.7, "fcf_yield": -10.2, "ocf_yield": -5.7, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -2.0, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 6.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.7, "fix_assets": 8.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.98, "capex_dep": 9.94, "interest_debt": 18.4, "debt_ebitda": 9.4, "debt_ratio": 60.2, "debt_mv": 17.5, "payout": 53.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": -21.6, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": -42.5, "np_vol": 147.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["特种电缆", 62.0], ["普通电线", 21.0], ["特种电线", 15.0], ["普通电缆", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.7, "ret_prev2_year": 8.9, "ret_ytd": -19.2, "ret_pivot": 87.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.0, "ret_60": 22.9, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": -26.8, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 48.0, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 96, "pricing": 45, "hard": 25, "bondness": 51}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 133.7 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.2%(经营现金流/市值 -5.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.0 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 9.94 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 133.7 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -27%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 23% / -19%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "金龙羽:PE 比行业中位高 90.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.8个百分点。"]}}