{"F": {"ts_code": "002881.SZ", "name": "美格智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "通信终端及配件", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.93, "pe_ttm": 77.0613, "pb": 4.5444, "dv_ttm": 0.2383, "total_mv": 1267499.0349, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.3, 18.9, 17.9, 19.2, 17.0, 14.1], "rev_series": [11.2, 19.7, 23.1, 21.5, 29.4, 37.5], "np_series": [0.3, 1.2, 1.3, 0.6, 1.4, 1.4], "roe_series": [4.9, 18.6, 16.9, 5.6, 8.9, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 38.9, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -1.2, "gm_median": 17.9, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -3.5, "npm_median": 4.6, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 5.9, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.54, "capex_dep": 8.91, "interest_debt": 7.2, "debt_ebitda": 2.2, "debt_ratio": 42.3, "debt_mv": 5.7, "payout": 25.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.6, "np_cagr3": 3.7, "rev_yoy": 7.3, "np_yoy": 25.9, "np_vol": 135.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 62.6, "fwd_pe2": 41.1, "fwd_g1": 23.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 1.2, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["无线通信模组及解决方案", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.5, "ret_prev2_year": 11.2, "ret_ytd": -5.7, "ret_pivot": 108.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.3, "ret_60": 2.4, "ret_120": -6.2, "ret_250": -21.2, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 51.1, "pos_52w": 71.2}, "S": {"duration": 85, "pricing": 45, "hard": 9, "bondness": 19}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 77.1 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 6%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(9 篇研报)前瞻 PE 62.6 倍,次年 41.1 倍,PEG 1.20。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 6%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 8.91 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 77.1 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / 2% / -6%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "美格智能:PE 比行业中位低 7.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 11.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.3个百分点。"]}}