{"F": {"ts_code": "002879.SZ", "name": "长缆科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "线缆部件及其他", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170707", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.84, "pe_ttm": 26.8948, "pb": 1.7563, "dv_ttm": 2.9038, "total_mv": 325193.2658, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [54.1, 49.0, 44.3, 43.3, 36.4, 30.9], "rev_series": [9.4, 10.6, 9.9, 10.4, 12.4, 14.4], "np_series": [1.6, 1.4, 0.3, 0.7, 0.7, 1.3], "roe_series": [10.8, 8.9, 1.8, 4.2, 4.3, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.5, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_yield": 1.5, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 43.3, "gm_std": 6.4, "gm_stab": 0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": 6.9, "roe_median": 4.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.0, "fix_assets": 6.7, "goodwill_ratio": 2.3, "pb_calc": 1.76, "capex_dep": 0.61, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 20.0, "debt_mv": 5.9, "payout": 65.8, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 13.4, "np_cagr3": 65.0, "rev_yoy": 0.9, "np_yoy": -42.4, "np_vol": 76.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 81.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["变压器绝缘油", 32.0], ["其他及辅助类", 22.0], ["1kV至35kV产品", 17.0], ["220kV产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.0, "ret_prev2_year": -4.8, "ret_ytd": -6.8, "ret_pivot": 53.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": 17.5, "ret_120": -25.4, "ret_250": -11.0, "mdd_250": -49.1, "vol_250": 50.6, "pos_52w": 69.5}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 55, "hard": 42, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 26.9 倍、股息率 2.9%、毛利率近 5 年中位 43.3%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.3%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.5%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.3%,稳定度 85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.61 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 26.9 倍 粗算,约 81%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -11%,最大回撤 -49%,年化波动 51%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / 18% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "长缆科技:PE 比行业中位低 16.6倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点。"]}}