{"F": {"ts_code": "002878.SZ", "name": "元隆雅图", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "传媒", "sw2": "广告营销", "sw3": "营销代理", "ind": "广告营销", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170606", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.07, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.7092, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 342423.1519, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.3, 21.8, 20.0, 15.1, 12.2, 12.4], "rev_series": [19.9, 22.9, 32.9, 26.7, 27.1, 30.1], "np_series": [1.6, 1.2, 1.7, 0.1, -2.4, -0.3], "roe_series": [21.4, 13.5, 17.7, 0.7, -17.5, -2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.8, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 2.7, "fcf_ttm": 2.5, "fcf_yield": 7.3, "ocf_yield": 8.0, "gm_median": 15.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.74, "gm_chg_2022": -2.3, "npm_median": 0.4, "roe_median": 0.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.7, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.71, "capex_dep": 1.58, "interest_debt": 4.3, "debt_ebitda": 17.0, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 12.7, "payout": 125.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -2.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -16.4, "np_yoy": 20.2, "np_vol": 1211.7, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["礼赠品(促销品)", 31.0], ["促销品", 31.0], ["新媒体营销服务", 22.0], ["促销服务", 14.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.6, "ret_prev2_year": -11.2, "ret_ytd": -28.3, "ret_pivot": 29.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.1, "ret_60": -9.4, "ret_120": -21.3, "ret_250": -33.8, "mdd_250": -50.2, "vol_250": 47.1, "pos_52w": 59.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 24, "bondness": 70}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 38%,有息负债 4 亿,经营现金流/市值 8.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 7.3%(经营现金流/市值 8.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 15.1%,稳定度 74%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 1.58 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -34%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -9% / -21%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「广告营销」28 家中位:PE 98.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 14.7% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 32%。", "元隆雅图:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.8个百分点。"]}}