{"F": {"ts_code": "002876.SZ", "name": "三利谱", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170525", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 29.7, "pe_ttm": 65.0312, "pb": 2.1193, "dv_ttm": 0.3662, "total_mv": 516438.153, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [17.4, 25.0, 21.4, 14.8, 17.3, 15.6], "rev_series": [19.1, 23.0, 21.7, 20.7, 25.9, 36.9], "np_series": [1.2, 3.4, 2.1, 0.4, 0.7, 0.5], "roe_series": [8.5, 17.1, 9.3, 1.8, 2.9, 2.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 42.4, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 3.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_yield": 3.0, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 17.3, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.78, "gm_chg_2022": 4.1, "npm_median": 2.6, "roe_median": 2.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.6, "fix_assets": 27.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.12, "capex_dep": 0.73, "interest_debt": 26.7, "debt_ebitda": 6.0, "debt_ratio": 62.9, "debt_mv": 51.6, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.3, "np_cagr3": -38.9, "rev_yoy": 32.6, "np_yoy": 85.2, "np_vol": 95.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 42.7, "fwd_pe2": 29.7, "fwd_g1": 52.0, "fwd_g2": 44.0, "peg": 0.97, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["TFT系列", 32.0], ["TFT", 32.0], ["黑白系列", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.2, "ret_prev2_year": -30.4, "ret_ytd": 24.6, "ret_pivot": 61.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.3, "ret_60": -2.7, "ret_120": 6.8, "ret_250": 8.2, "mdd_250": -31.1, "vol_250": 41.6, "pos_52w": 84.2}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 47, "hard": 68, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["成长兑现"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 17.3%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 78%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.3%,稳定度 78%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 4.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 0.73 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 65.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 8%,最大回撤 -31%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 84%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 6% / -3% / 7%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "三利谱:PE 比行业中位高 3.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 11.2个百分点。"]}}