{"F": {"ts_code": "002873.SZ", "name": "新天药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170519", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.41, "pe_ttm": 250.1468, "pb": 1.6057, "dv_ttm": 0.3474, "total_mv": 205291.2958, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [78.0, 79.3, 77.3, 77.1, 73.5, 71.6], "rev_series": [7.5, 9.7, 10.9, 9.5, 8.6, 7.5], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 1.1, 0.8, 0.5, 0.1], "roe_series": [9.5, 11.6, 11.1, 7.2, 4.5, 0.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 6.2, "gm_median": 77.1, "gm_std": 2.8, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 8.5, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 34.0, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 2.47, "interest_debt": 5.9, "debt_ebitda": 8.1, "debt_ratio": 37.8, "debt_mv": 28.9, "payout": 42.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -11.7, "np_cagr3": -56.6, "rev_yoy": -7.4, "np_yoy": -15.7, "np_vol": 41.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["妇科类", 37.0], ["泌尿系统类", 9.0], ["清热解毒类", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 5.9, "ret_prev2_year": -23.8, "ret_ytd": -15.0, "ret_pivot": 8.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.3, "ret_60": 4.3, "ret_120": -18.9, "ret_250": -36.7, "mdd_250": -44.0, "vol_250": 34.5, "pos_52w": 65.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 79, "hard": 54, "bondness": 52}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 250.1 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 77.1%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 8.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 34%、毛利率 77.1% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 6.2%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 77.1%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 2.47 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 250.1 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -37%,最大回撤 -44%,年化波动 34%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 4% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "新天药业:PE 比行业中位高 227.0倍;股息率 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.6个百分点。"]}}