{"F": {"ts_code": "002871.SZ", "name": "伟隆股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.67, "pe_ttm": 39.8209, "pb": 4.452, "dv_ttm": 2.0257, "total_mv": 495396.4246, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.5, 32.6, 37.5, 39.0, 40.3, 41.1], "rev_series": [3.4, 4.2, 5.4, 5.7, 5.8, 6.7], "np_series": [0.6, 0.6, 1.4, 1.2, 1.3, 1.3], "roe_series": [8.8, 9.3, 19.7, 15.4, 15.9, 13.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.1, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.1, "fcf_yield": 2.2, "ocf_yield": 4.9, "gm_median": 39.0, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 3.0, "npm_median": 21.1, "roe_median": 15.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 29.4, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.45, "capex_dep": 3.98, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 24.9, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 65.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 7.4, "np_cagr3": -0.5, "rev_yoy": 15.5, "np_yoy": -16.6, "np_vol": 49.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.5, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 34.5, "fwd_pe2": 26.8, "fwd_g1": 15.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["阀门销售", 37.0], ["阀门零件及管件销售", 6.0], ["阀门零件、管件", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.4, "ret_prev2_year": -11.3, "ret_ytd": 11.4, "ret_pivot": 164.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 18.4, "ret_60": -6.3, "ret_120": 5.4, "ret_250": 9.3, "mdd_250": -37.7, "vol_250": 55.2, "pos_52w": 84.7}, "S": {"duration": 63, "pricing": 61, "hard": 47, "bondness": 48}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 39.8 倍、股息率 2.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%、固定资产占比 29%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 39.0%),硬资产占比 29%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.2%(经营现金流/市值 4.9%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 39.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 29%,资本开支/折旧 3.98 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 39.8 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 9%,最大回撤 -38%,年化波动 55%,现价在 52 周高点的 85%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 18% / -6% / 5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "伟隆股份:PE 比行业中位低 10.8倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.6个百分点。"]}}