{"F": {"ts_code": "002869.SZ", "name": "金溢科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "其他计算机设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170515", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.4, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 1.4491, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 290140.6, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [63.0, 38.1, 36.7, 35.1, 34.3, 26.9], "rev_series": [15.6, 3.0, 4.9, 5.1, 6.0, 4.6], "np_series": [6.3, -1.9, 0.2, 0.5, 0.8, -1.3], "roe_series": [29.5, -8.3, 0.9, 2.4, 3.6, -6.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 35.1, "gm_std": 3.9, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -26.3, "npm_median": 3.9, "roe_median": 0.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.5, "fix_assets": 2.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.8, "pb_calc": 1.45, "capex_dep": 1.12, "interest_debt": 0.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 17.8, "debt_mv": 2.8, "payout": 39.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -1.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -10.0, "np_yoy": -230.2, "np_vol": 158.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 47.0], ["智慧收费", 32.0], ["汽车电子", 9.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.9, "ret_prev2_year": 32.4, "ret_ytd": -29.5, "ret_pivot": -27.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -9.0, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -42.6, "mdd_250": -58.9, "vol_250": 44.9, "pos_52w": 50.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 52, "hard": 14, "bondness": 37}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 18%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.1%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -26.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.12 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -43%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 50%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -9% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "金溢科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点。"]}}