{"F": {"ts_code": "002868.SZ", "name": "绿康生化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "动物保健Ⅱ", "sw3": "动物保健Ⅲ", "ind": "动物保健Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170503", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.83, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 56.5798, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 401439.0114, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.4, 16.4, -2.8, -9.0, -8.4, 6.7], "rev_series": [3.1, 3.6, 3.3, 5.1, 6.5, 5.2], "np_series": [0.4, -0.3, -1.2, -2.2, -4.4, -1.4], "roe_series": [5.6, -3.5, -18.6, -44.1, -231.1, -754.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.7, "np_ttm": -0.7, "ocf_ttm": -0.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.8, "fcf_yield": -4.4, "ocf_yield": -1.4, "gm_median": -2.8, "gm_std": 9.7, "gm_stab": 4.46, "gm_chg_2022": -33.2, "npm_median": -37.2, "roe_median": -44.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 63.5, "fix_assets": 4.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 56.58, "capex_dep": 1.88, "interest_debt": 3.2, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 90.1, "debt_mv": 7.9, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 16.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -15.7, "np_yoy": 112.5, "np_vol": 141.6, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["动物保健品", 56.0], ["兽药原料药", 31.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 68.8, "ret_prev2_year": -6.1, "ret_ytd": -23.4, "ret_pivot": 107.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.4, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -36.2, "ret_250": -8.7, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 49.2, "pos_52w": 55.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 39, "hard": 100, "bondness": 19}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 64%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -2.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -33.2 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.3 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 64%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.8%,稳定度 446%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.4%(经营现金流/市值 -1.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -2.8%,稳定度 446%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -33.2 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 64%,资本开支/折旧 1.88 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 56%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 3% / -36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「动物保健Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 37.8 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 39.9% / 固定资产占比 35% / 分红率 64%。", "绿康生化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 42.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 28.5个百分点。"]}}