{"F": {"ts_code": "002867.SZ", "name": "周大生", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "纺织服饰", "sw2": "饰品", "sw3": "钟表珠宝", "ind": "饰品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170427", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.88, "pe_ttm": 12.311, "pb": 1.8982, "dv_ttm": 8.2721, "total_mv": 1180995.6032, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.0, 27.3, 20.8, 18.1, 20.8, 31.4], "rev_series": [50.8, 91.6, 111.2, 162.9, 138.9, 88.2], "np_series": [10.1, 12.2, 10.9, 13.2, 10.1, 11.0], "roe_series": [20.1, 21.9, 18.4, 21.2, 15.9, 17.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 78.6, "np_ttm": 9.6, "ocf_ttm": 2.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_yield": 1.4, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 20.8, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.77, "gm_chg_2022": -20.3, "npm_median": 9.8, "roe_median": 18.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.9, "fix_assets": 9.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.9, "capex_dep": 3.65, "interest_debt": 8.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 26.1, "debt_mv": 7.4, "payout": 88.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": -7.4, "np_cagr3": 0.4, "rev_yoy": -20.8, "np_yoy": -24.2, "np_vol": 17.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 59.0, "earn_yield": 8.1, "consensus_n": 22, "fwd_pe": 9.7, "fwd_pe2": 8.7, "fwd_g1": 27.0, "fwd_g2": 12.0, "peg": 0.81, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["素金首饰", 35.0], ["品牌使用费", 5.0], ["其他首饰", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": -11.2, "ret_prev2_year": 2.4, "ret_ytd": -5.6, "ret_pivot": 25.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.0, "ret_60": -4.0, "ret_120": -6.0, "ret_250": -12.0, "mdd_250": -23.2, "vol_250": 29.6, "pos_52w": 79.6}, "S": {"duration": 26, "pricing": 41, "hard": 17, "bondness": 83}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "股息率≥4%"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 88%、股息率 8.3%、营收 3 年复合 -7.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 11%,毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.4%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 20.8%,稳定度 77%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -20.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 3.65 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 12.3 倍 粗算,约 59%(1 − 5/PE)。中等。"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -23%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -4% / -6%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「饰品」15 家中位:PE 57.4 / 股息率 2.0% / 毛利率 15.0% / 固定资产占比 3% / 分红率 59%。", "周大生:PE 比行业中位低 45.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 6.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 8.3个百分点。"]}}