{"F": {"ts_code": "002866.SZ", "name": "传艺科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170426", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.37, "pe_ttm": 63.769, "pb": 1.9834, "dv_ttm": 0.4175, "total_mv": 416043.5451, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.3, 21.3, 24.3, 23.8, 21.4, 22.5], "rev_series": [17.7, 19.2, 20.0, 17.7, 19.5, 21.5], "np_series": [1.4, 1.6, 1.2, 0.4, -0.7, 0.9], "roe_series": [9.6, 8.9, 5.8, 2.0, -3.6, 4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 21.8, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.0, "ocf_yield": 4.3, "gm_median": 22.5, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.0, "npm_median": 2.2, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.3, "fix_assets": 14.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.98, "capex_dep": 0.64, "interest_debt": 10.3, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 47.6, "debt_mv": 24.8, "payout": 15.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 2.4, "np_cagr3": -9.3, "rev_yoy": 3.3, "np_yoy": -48.9, "np_vol": 158.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["笔记本电脑键盘", 33.0], ["笔记本及台式机电脑键盘等输入设备及配件", 33.0], ["笔记本电脑触控板及按键（Button/Touch", 11.0], ["笔记本电脑触控板及按键(Button/Touch", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 11.4, "ret_prev2_year": -23.8, "ret_ytd": -19.9, "ret_pivot": 4.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.9, "ret_60": -16.6, "ret_120": -27.0, "ret_250": -23.8, "mdd_250": -54.0, "vol_250": 48.7, "pos_52w": 49.0}, "S": {"duration": 80, "pricing": 51, "hard": 63, "bondness": 39}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 63.8 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 95%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.0%(经营现金流/市值 4.3%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 22.5%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 0.64 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 63.8 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 49%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -17% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "传艺科技:PE 比行业中位高 17.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 14.5个百分点。"]}}