{"F": {"ts_code": "002865.SZ", "name": "钧达股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170425", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.23, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.1476, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1189970.3003, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.6, 12.0, 11.6, 14.7, 0.7, -1.3], "rev_series": [8.6, 28.6, 116.0, 186.6, 99.5, 76.3], "np_series": [0.1, -1.8, 7.2, 8.2, -5.9, -14.2], "roe_series": [1.4, -17.4, 69.9, 28.3, -13.8, -37.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.4, "np_ttm": -14.1, "ocf_ttm": -12.4, "fcf_ttm": -12.6, "fcf_yield": -10.6, "ocf_yield": -10.4, "gm_median": 11.6, "gm_std": 6.5, "gm_stab": 0.44, "gm_chg_2022": -12.9, "npm_median": -4.7, "roe_median": -13.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 42.1, "fix_assets": 72.1, "goodwill_ratio": 6.2, "pb_calc": 3.15, "capex_dep": 0.03, "interest_debt": 66.4, "debt_ebitda": 26.0, "debt_ratio": 77.5, "debt_mv": 55.8, "payout": 19.5, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -13.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -13.2, "np_yoy": 4.0, "np_vol": 635.3, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 16, "fwd_pe": 46.9, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 247.0, "peg": 0.19, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["光伏电池片", 97.0], ["其他业务收入", 1.0], ["其他", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 6.9, "ret_prev2_year": -33.4, "ret_ytd": -30.0, "ret_pivot": 9.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.0, "ret_60": -40.2, "ret_120": -53.9, "ret_250": -23.0, "mdd_250": -66.6, "vol_250": 66.0, "pos_52w": 33.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 25, "hard": 67, "bondness": 42}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 42%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 26.0 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 42%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 44%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -10.6%(经营现金流/市值 -10.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.6%,稳定度 44%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 42%,资本开支/折旧 0.03 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -67%,年化波动 66%,现价在 52 周高点的 33%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -40% / -54%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "钧达股份:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点。"]}}