{"F": {"ts_code": "002864.SZ", "name": "盘龙药业", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "中药Ⅱ", "sw3": "中药Ⅲ", "ind": "中药Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20171116", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.48, "pe_ttm": 37.3959, "pb": 1.6921, "dv_ttm": 1.256, "total_mv": 293633.5933, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [62.3, 58.3, 58.1, 57.9, 60.8, 51.9], "rev_series": [6.7, 8.9, 9.7, 9.8, 9.7, 11.4], "np_series": [0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, 1.2, 1.0], "roe_series": [11.3, 12.3, 11.8, 8.9, 7.6, 5.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.9, "np_ttm": 0.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_yield": 5.0, "ocf_yield": 6.0, "gm_median": 58.1, "gm_std": 3.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -4.2, "npm_median": 10.7, "roe_median": 8.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.1, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.69, "capex_dep": 0.78, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.4, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 1.8, "payout": 26.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 5.4, "np_cagr3": -1.6, "rev_yoy": -26.4, "np_yoy": -29.5, "np_vol": 12.9, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["自产中成药", 22.0], ["中成药制造", 22.0], ["医药商业配送", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 2.8, "ret_prev2_year": -20.9, "ret_ytd": -8.7, "ret_pivot": 26.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -2.3, "ret_60": 4.2, "ret_120": -15.8, "ret_250": -8.8, "mdd_250": -35.7, "vol_250": 40.7, "pos_52w": 71.7}, "S": {"duration": 61, "pricing": 67, "hard": 29, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 37.4 倍、股息率 1.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%、固定资产占比 18%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.4 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 58.1%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.0%(经营现金流/市值 6.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.78 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 37.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -9%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 41%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / 4% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「中药Ⅱ」68 家中位:PE 23.1 / 股息率 2.8% / 毛利率 57.5% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 64%。", "盘龙药业:PE 比行业中位高 14.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}