{"F": {"ts_code": "002863.SZ", "name": "今飞凯达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "轮胎轮毂", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 4.79, "pe_ttm": 44.7401, "pb": 1.0162, "dv_ttm": 0.2088, "total_mv": 287152.6444, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.0, 12.8, 12.2, 12.4, 13.8, 12.6], "rev_series": [31.1, 39.6, 42.2, 44.1, 49.0, 53.9], "np_series": [0.6, 1.4, 1.1, 0.7, 0.7, 0.6], "roe_series": [4.4, 7.1, 5.6, 3.1, 2.5, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 58.6, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 5.6, "fcf_ttm": -4.4, "fcf_yield": -15.3, "ocf_yield": 19.6, "gm_median": 12.6, "gm_std": 0.5, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.7, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 3.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.9, "fix_assets": 46.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.02, "capex_dep": 3.18, "interest_debt": 49.1, "debt_ebitda": 6.6, "debt_ratio": 70.8, "debt_mv": 171.1, "payout": 10.0, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 8.5, "np_cagr3": -19.0, "rev_yoy": 18.3, "np_yoy": 9.4, "np_vol": 51.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["汽轮", 55.0], ["型材", 18.0], ["摩轮", 10.0], ["其他业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.0, "ret_prev2_year": -25.2, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": 32.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.1, "ret_60": 1.5, "ret_120": -18.7, "ret_250": -12.1, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 32.7, "pos_52w": 76.9}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 46, "hard": 77, "bondness": 31}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 48%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 12.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.6 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 96%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -15.3%(经营现金流/市值 19.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.6%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 3.18 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.7 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 33%,现价在 52 周高点的 77%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 2% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "今飞凯达:PE 比行业中位高 14.5倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.4个百分点。"]}}