{"F": {"ts_code": "002862.SZ", "name": "实丰文化", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "文娱用品", "sw3": "娱乐用品", "ind": "文娱用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170411", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.04, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.3131, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 271861.96, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [14.9, 16.1, 12.3, 15.0, 37.0, 32.3], "rev_series": [2.5, 3.7, 3.3, 3.2, 4.4, 4.2], "np_series": [-0.4, -0.0, -0.4, -0.6, 0.1, -1.7], "roe_series": [-7.5, -0.2, -8.2, -14.5, 2.2, -46.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.4, "np_ttm": -1.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.3, "fcf_yield": -4.7, "ocf_yield": -1.3, "gm_median": 16.1, "gm_std": 10.1, "gm_stab": 0.37, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": -12.3, "roe_median": -8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 36.2, "fix_assets": 2.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.31, "capex_dep": 3.05, "interest_debt": 2.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 59.6, "debt_mv": 10.1, "payout": 37.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 8.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 11.8, "np_yoy": -26.1, "np_vol": 1639.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 89.1, "fwd_pe2": 76.4, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 17.0, "peg": 5.24, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["玩具", 16.0], ["游戏", 16.0], ["玩具：其他玩具", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": -6.3, "ret_prev2_year": 38.3, "ret_ytd": -17.9, "ret_pivot": 55.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 19.1, "ret_60": 8.2, "ret_120": -5.0, "ret_250": -24.5, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 44.0, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 26, "hard": 58, "bondness": 28}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 16.1%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点;资产负债率 60%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 37%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -4.7%(经营现金流/市值 -1.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.1%,稳定度 37%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 3.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -24%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 44%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 19% / 8% / -5%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「文娱用品」20 家中位:PE 47.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.8% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "实丰文化:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 7.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.7个百分点。"]}}