{"F": {"ts_code": "002861.SZ", "name": "瀛通通讯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "消费电子", "sw3": "消费电子零部件及组装", "ind": "消费电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170413", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.9646, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 297122.98, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [22.0, 19.3, 17.6, 18.1, 19.2, 18.6], "rev_series": [12.1, 10.5, 7.2, 7.5, 8.2, 8.4], "np_series": [0.4, -0.4, -1.2, -0.8, 0.1, -0.7], "roe_series": [4.2, -3.4, -12.1, -8.8, 1.1, -6.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.9, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.0, "fcf_yield": -3.5, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 18.6, "gm_std": 0.6, "gm_stab": 0.97, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": -8.4, "roe_median": -6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.0, "fix_assets": 8.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.96, "capex_dep": 1.87, "interest_debt": 2.2, "debt_ebitda": 21.1, "debt_ratio": 36.6, "debt_mv": 7.5, "payout": 142.9, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 5.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 12.6, "np_yoy": -114.7, "np_vol": 298.8, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["声学产品及精密零组件", 25.0], ["声学产品", 25.0], ["电源、数据传输产品及精密零组件", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.2, "ret_prev2_year": -4.0, "ret_ytd": -10.3, "ret_pivot": 44.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -1.8, "ret_60": -11.9, "ret_120": -13.4, "ret_250": -8.2, "mdd_250": -40.3, "vol_250": 46.0, "pos_52w": 67.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 47, "hard": 83, "bondness": 65}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 18.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 21.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 97%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 18.6%,稳定度 97%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 1.87 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -8%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 46%,现价在 52 周高点的 68%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -2% / -12% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「消费电子」100 家中位:PE 46.5 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 44%。", "瀛通通讯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.2个百分点。"]}}