{"F": {"ts_code": "002859.SZ", "name": "洁美科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "其他电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电子Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170407", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.44, "pe_ttm": 107.5747, "pb": 7.2965, "dv_ttm": 0.3379, "total_mv": 2787176.448, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.7, 38.3, 29.4, 35.8, 34.2, 33.4], "rev_series": [14.3, 18.6, 13.0, 15.7, 18.2, 21.0], "np_series": [2.9, 3.9, 1.7, 2.6, 2.0, 2.2], "roe_series": [16.7, 19.3, 6.7, 8.9, 6.8, 7.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 23.1, "np_ttm": 2.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -1.3, "ocf_yield": 1.2, "gm_median": 34.2, "gm_std": 2.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -11.2, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 7.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 61.6, "fix_assets": 47.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 7.3, "capex_dep": 3.81, "interest_debt": 33.6, "debt_ebitda": 6.3, "debt_ratio": 50.7, "debt_mv": 12.1, "payout": 43.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 17.3, "np_cagr3": 9.8, "rev_yoy": 21.4, "np_yoy": 39.9, "np_vol": 39.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 8, "fwd_pe": 61.2, "fwd_pe2": 41.8, "fwd_g1": 76.0, "fwd_g2": 46.0, "peg": 1.33, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["电子封装材料", 74.0], ["电子级薄膜材料", 17.0], ["其他主营业务", 5.0], ["其他", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 34.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.0, "ret_ytd": 123.6, "ret_pivot": 298.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -12.9, "ret_60": -21.2, "ret_120": 44.6, "ret_250": 108.2, "mdd_250": -51.7, "vol_250": 68.2, "pos_52w": 53.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 53, "hard": 99, "bondness": 35}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 107.6 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%、固定资产占比 62%、有息负债/EBITDA 6.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 62%、毛利率 34.2% 两条都占,但所在行业(电子)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.3%(经营现金流/市值 1.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.2%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -11.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 62%,资本开支/折旧 3.81 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 107.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 108%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 68%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -21% / 45%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电子Ⅱ」34 家中位:PE 51.5 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 23.1% / 固定资产占比 13% / 分红率 35%。", "洁美科技:PE 比行业中位高 56.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 48.9个百分点。"]}}