{"F": {"ts_code": "002858.SZ", "name": "力盛体育", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "社会服务", "sw2": "体育Ⅱ", "sw3": "体育Ⅲ", "ind": "体育Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170324", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 12.28, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.6929, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 229241.0752, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 30.5, 18.1, 21.9, 23.1, 18.7], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.8, 2.6, 4.1, 4.4, 5.0], "np_series": [-0.5, 0.0, -0.8, -1.9, -0.4, -0.1], "roe_series": [-12.8, 0.6, -10.9, -30.6, -7.0, -1.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 3.6, "gm_median": 21.9, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.8, "gm_chg_2022": -0.4, "npm_median": -3.8, "roe_median": -7.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.5, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 8.7, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 2.57, "interest_debt": 2.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 26.5, "debt_mv": 8.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 24.4, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.6, "np_yoy": 4.5, "np_vol": 1016.2, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 42.1, "fwd_pe2": 26.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 0.71, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 35.0], ["体育赛事运营", 27.0], ["体育赛事经营", 27.0], ["体育场馆经营", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.1, "ret_prev2_year": -39.8, "ret_ytd": -18.1, "ret_pivot": 29.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.6, "ret_60": 2.7, "ret_120": -20.2, "ret_250": -15.5, "mdd_250": -41.8, "vol_250": 43.2, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 17, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 26%,有息负债 2 亿,经营现金流/市值 3.6%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 3.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 21.9%,稳定度 80%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 2.57 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -16%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 3% / -20%。", "行业对照": []}}