{"F": {"ts_code": "002853.SZ", "name": "皮阿诺", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "家居用品", "sw3": "定制家居", "ind": "家居用品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.5121, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 400951.6528, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.1, 34.0, 30.0, 29.5, 24.3, 25.5], "rev_series": [14.9, 18.2, 14.5, 13.2, 8.9, 5.7], "np_series": [2.0, -7.3, 1.5, 0.9, -3.7, -0.4], "roe_series": [12.7, -47.5, 12.7, 6.6, -32.7, -4.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.9, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": -0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -2.7, "ocf_yield": -2.2, "gm_median": 29.5, "gm_std": 3.5, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -4.1, "npm_median": -7.4, "roe_median": -4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.1, "fix_assets": 4.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.51, "capex_dep": 0.42, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 27.2, "debt_ratio": 34.1, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 43.5, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -26.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -29.0, "np_yoy": 66.9, "np_vol": 280.0, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["定制橱柜及其配套产品", 16.0], ["定制厨柜及其配套家居产品", 16.0], ["定制衣柜及其配套家居产品", 15.0]], "ret_prev_year": 91.1, "ret_prev2_year": -13.6, "ret_ytd": 4.6, "ret_pivot": 214.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.9, "ret_60": -5.1, "ret_120": -19.3, "ret_250": 72.7, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 66.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 50, "hard": 51, "bondness": 50}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 34%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.7%(经营现金流/市值 -2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.5%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 0.42 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 73%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / -5% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「家居用品」77 家中位:PE 28.3 / 股息率 1.7% / 毛利率 28.3% / 固定资产占比 32% / 分红率 50%。", "皮阿诺:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点。"]}}