{"F": {"ts_code": "002852.SZ", "name": "道道全", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "农林牧渔", "sw2": "农产品加工", "sw3": "粮油加工", "ind": "农产品加工", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170310", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.51, "pe_ttm": 42.1475, "pb": 1.3283, "dv_ttm": 1.9859, "total_mv": 292717.0233, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.2, 1.6, -1.2, 7.6, 9.6, 8.3], "rev_series": [52.9, 54.5, 70.3, 70.0, 59.4, 61.9], "np_series": [-0.8, -1.9, -4.2, 0.8, 1.8, 2.3], "roe_series": [-4.0, -9.1, -19.1, 3.8, 8.6, 10.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 62.7, "np_ttm": 0.7, "ocf_ttm": 4.6, "fcf_ttm": 3.0, "fcf_yield": 10.2, "ocf_yield": 15.6, "gm_median": 7.6, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.45, "gm_chg_2022": -8.5, "npm_median": 1.2, "roe_median": 3.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 40.4, "fix_assets": 18.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.33, "capex_dep": 1.2, "interest_debt": 12.7, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 49.1, "debt_mv": 43.3, "payout": 55.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -4.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 2.6, "np_yoy": -90.7, "np_vol": 117.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["包装油", 70.0], ["粕类", 19.0], ["散装油", 10.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.6, "ret_ytd": -18.0, "ret_pivot": 46.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 12.7, "ret_60": 12.7, "ret_120": -27.3, "ret_250": -25.8, "mdd_250": -40.5, "vol_250": 35.2, "pos_52w": 71.9}, "S": {"duration": 65, "pricing": 23, "hard": 65, "bondness": 66}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 40%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 7.6%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 45%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 10.2%(经营现金流/市值 15.6%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 7.6%,稳定度 45%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.5 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.20 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 42.1 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -26%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 35%,现价在 52 周高点的 72%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 13% / 13% / -27%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「农产品加工」26 家中位:PE 39.2 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 11.9% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "道道全:PE 比行业中位高 2.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 4.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 4.9个百分点。"]}}