{"F": {"ts_code": "002849.SZ", "name": "威星智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170217", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.49, "pe_ttm": 81.9225, "pb": 2.9343, "dv_ttm": 0.2163, "total_mv": 407952.266, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.0, 28.1, 30.0, 30.7, 32.3, 27.6], "rev_series": [12.0, 11.5, 9.5, 12.4, 13.0, 16.5], "np_series": [0.8, 0.5, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3, 0.5], "roe_series": [11.6, 6.5, 5.8, 2.7, 2.6, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 2.0, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 3.1, "ocf_yield": 5.0, "gm_median": 30.0, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": 2.0, "npm_median": 4.2, "roe_median": 4.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 9.3, "fix_assets": 2.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.93, "capex_dep": 2.76, "interest_debt": 1.7, "debt_ebitda": 1.7, "debt_ratio": 48.4, "debt_mv": 4.1, "payout": 26.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 20.2, "np_cagr3": -3.2, "rev_yoy": 7.4, "np_yoy": -8.0, "np_vol": 37.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["远传燃气表", 25.0], ["电子式燃气表", 18.0], ["智能水表", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": -10.6, "ret_prev2_year": -4.3, "ret_ytd": 16.6, "ret_pivot": 83.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.7, "ret_60": 17.5, "ret_120": 2.0, "ret_250": 13.0, "mdd_250": -35.1, "vol_250": 48.2, "pos_52w": 92.4}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 57, "hard": 15, "bondness": 16}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 81.9 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.0%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 3.1%(经营现金流/市值 5.0%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.0%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.76 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 81.9 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 13%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 92%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / 18% / 2%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "威星智能:PE 比行业中位高 31.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点。"]}}