{"F": {"ts_code": "002848.SZ", "name": "高斯贝尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "家用电器", "sw2": "黑色家电", "sw3": "彩电", "ind": "黑色家电", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170213", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 13.8, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 32.8448, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 230667.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [2.4, 7.1, 5.5, 7.2, 0.6, 6.4], "rev_series": [4.2, 5.8, 3.8, 2.9, 1.3, 3.6], "np_series": [-3.7, -1.3, -0.1, -0.8, -1.3, -0.8], "roe_series": [-71.5, -43.2, -2.4, -45.6, -90.8, -70.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.0, "np_ttm": -0.5, "ocf_ttm": -0.2, "fcf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 6.4, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.62, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": -22.1, "roe_median": -45.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 35.5, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 32.84, "capex_dep": 1.01, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 84.7, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": -1.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 235.5, "np_yoy": 83.0, "np_vol": 569.2, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["消费电子产品", 44.0], ["安防产品", 44.0], ["新材料", 5.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 18.5, "ret_prev2_year": -35.4, "ret_ytd": 53.7, "ret_pivot": 93.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 6.7, "ret_60": 7.0, "ret_120": 7.6, "ret_250": 66.3, "mdd_250": -32.9, "vol_250": 44.9, "pos_52w": 79.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 35, "hard": 57, "bondness": 23}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 36%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 6.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点;资产负债率 85%,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 36%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 6.4%,稳定度 62%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 6.4%,稳定度 62%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 36%,资本开支/折旧 1.01 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 66%,最大回撤 -33%,年化波动 45%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 7% / 7% / 8%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「黑色家电」9 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 0.9% / 毛利率 16.7% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 51%。", "高斯贝尔:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}