{"F": {"ts_code": "002846.SZ", "name": "英联股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "轻工制造", "sw2": "包装印刷", "sw3": "金属包装", "ind": "包装印刷", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "主板", "list_date": "20170207", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 11.03, "pe_ttm": 109.0836, "pb": 3.2327, "dv_ttm": 0.2258, "total_mv": 463252.9408, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [19.9, 13.6, 9.1, 11.9, 10.0, 12.5], "rev_series": [13.3, 18.3, 19.3, 17.5, 20.2, 22.6], "np_series": [0.8, 0.4, -0.4, 0.1, -0.4, 0.4], "roe_series": [10.2, 4.3, -5.3, 1.3, -2.8, 2.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 24.9, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 2.8, "ocf_yield": 8.4, "gm_median": 11.9, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": -10.9, "npm_median": 0.7, "roe_median": 1.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 54.2, "fix_assets": 20.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.9, "pb_calc": 3.23, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 12.0, "debt_ebitda": 4.8, "debt_ratio": 61.9, "debt_mv": 25.9, "payout": 44.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 5.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 21.5, "np_yoy": 28.5, "np_vol": 213.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["饮料易开盖", 38.0], ["罐头易开盖", 28.0], ["其他收入", 12.0], ["其他产品", 12.0]], "ret_prev_year": 96.6, "ret_prev2_year": -24.8, "ret_ytd": -31.6, "ret_pivot": 77.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.6, "ret_60": -2.9, "ret_120": -25.3, "ret_250": -32.7, "mdd_250": -60.2, "vol_250": 47.7, "pos_52w": 48.8}, "S": {"duration": 93, "pricing": 40, "hard": 87, "bondness": 46}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 54%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 54%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 86%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.8%(经营现金流/市值 8.4%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.9%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 54%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 109.1 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -33%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / -3% / -25%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「包装印刷」46 家中位:PE 38.9 / 股息率 1.5% / 毛利率 20.3% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 50%。", "英联股份:PE 比行业中位高 70.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 21.4个百分点。"]}}